The rising interest rate environment of late 2022 and early 2023 has had a significant impact on commercial real estate activity. While prices have not declined as much as some analysts expected, transaction volume has waned as buyers and would-be sellers are likely finding it difficult to find an acceptable price for both sides. U.S. commercial real estate investment volume fell by approximately 57% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same quarter in 2022.¹

2022 has seen an abrupt end to the era of historically low interest rates, which began in earnest in 2009. The increasing cost of capital has had significant impacts throughout the economy and certainly will continue to do so into the future. One area directly affected is the cost of housing, where interest rates on a 30-year mortgage have increased from under 3% to over 6% in less than a year.¹

As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, inflation concerns, and the war in Ukraine illustrate, it can be difficult to decide where and how to invest money in volatile environments. As we like to say, we don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future; instead, we focus on the bigger picture to help us identify opportunities. We believe that the multi-family sector – long a bedrock of our real estate investment strategies – deserves investors’ attention in 2022.

In our previous blog, we covered the phenomenon of how a macro real estate bull market erupted from the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, as we (hopefully) begin to come out the other side, the question becomes: how should an investor approach this environment?

Across the board, real estate prices have been increasing, and multi-family assets are no exception. These higher prices have investors looking at low purchase cap rates. Certainly, these factors need to be considered; however, we also believe they should be put into context with what may be on the horizon for multi-family assets.   

The fallout from a Black Swan event, like the COVID-19 pandemic, can manifest itself in counter-intuitive ways. The economic devastation seen throughout the world in 2020 is undeniable; yet, amidst the havoc, we also witnessed one of the biggest booms in housing prices in U.S. history. According to the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which tracks price changes of single-family homes, housing prices rose 9.5% from November 2019 to November 2020. How does this happen while we’re simultaneously dealing with the worst pandemic in 100 years?

Recently, the White House released the details of President Biden’s proposed $1.8 trillion American Families Plan. The President’s proposal outlines several tax increases intended to help finance parts of this monumental spending—including changes to 1031 exchanges that, if passed, will severely limit the ability of everyday Americans to complete an exchange.

This is the third part of a series on COVID-19. Read Part 1 and Part 2.

COVID-19 continues to bring uncertainty to commercial real estate and 1031 exchanges. Our assessment of risk within the sector is represented in this image.

This is the second part of a series on COVID-19. Read Part 1 here.

As is the case with all economic disruptions, the COVID-19 pandemic will likely vary in its impact on different types of commercial real estate. At times like these, it's important to remember that the impact of disruptions related to Delaware Statutory Trust (DST) depends on the impact to the asset that the DST is invested in. These difficult and uncertain economic times serve as a reminder as to why our firm and our broker dealer spend so much time and energy on property-level and sponsor due diligence.    

Real estate investors who are selling property using a 1031 exchange received some welcome news last week! The IRS has issued new guidance extending the 45-day and 180-day deadline requirements currently defined in IRC section 1031. 

The notice stipulates that anyone with a 45-day identification period or 180-day closing deadline that occurs between April 1st and July 14th will have their deadline extended until July 15th.

This is the first part of a series on COVID-19. 

The COVID–19 pandemic will long be remembered as an event that has forever changed many of the ways we live, socialize, work, and play. The novel coronavirus plays no favorites and is almost boundless in its ability to affect every part of our economy.

Good friends and clients have asked me about how I think the real estate industry will be impacted, first at a macro-level and then more specifically for the 1031 exchange industry and Delaware Statutory Trust investors.